BTG/Nexus: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro maintain technical tie in second round

A recent BTG/Nexus poll indicates a stable electoral landscape for Brazil's presidential race, revealing a technical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round contest. The poll shows Lula with 47% of voter intentions, closely followed by Bolsonaro at 44%, mirroring the results from the previous survey in late June.

The telephone survey, conducted by Nexus between July 10 and 12, interviewed 2,003 voters aged 16 and over across Brazil. It has a margin of error of 2 percentage points with a 95% confidence interval. In a first-round scenario, Lula's support saw a slight dip from 42% to 40%, remaining within the margin of error. Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, held steady at 34%.

Other candidates lag considerably behind. Ronaldo Caiado garnered 5% support, while Renan Santos and Romeu Zema each received 4%. Joaquim Barbosa and Augusto Cury polled at 2% each, and Aécio Neves registered 1%. Cabo Daciolo did not score any points. In spontaneous polling, where candidate names are not prompted, Lula leads with 35%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 24%.

The poll also examined potential second-round matchups. Lula is projected to defeat Zema 47% to 40%, Caiado 47% to 38%, and Renan Santos 49% to 35%. Regarding voter rejection, Aécio Neves, who has stated he will not run, faces the highest rejection rate at 61%. Flávio Bolsonaro is rejected by 50% of voters, and Lula by 46%. The poll also assessed Lula's government performance, with 41% deeming it poor or terrible, 35% rating it as excellent or good, and 24% considering it regular.