Buenos Aires Faces "Very Strong" El Niño, Risks of Intense Flooding Predicted

Buenos Aires province is bracing for a potentially severe El Niño event, projected to be among the most intense recorded since 1950. The forecast indicates a greater than 90% probability that the current phenomenon will evolve into a "Very Strong" episode, impacting the spring and summer of 2026/27.

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There is a probability of over 90% that the current event will evolve into a 'Very Strong' intensity, considering that a large part of the Buenos Aires territory already has a high accumulation of water in the soil.

Significant soil saturation is already evident across much of the province. A report from the Ministry of Infrastructure and Public Services revealed that out of 92 surveyed municipalities, 58 have surpassed at least one of their historical monthly precipitation averages this year. Five districts are experiencing the highest water surpluses.

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We have launched a 'Risk Management Plan in the Face of Climate Change,' which includes monitoring, prevention, infrastructure maintenance, and works to mitigate the impact of eventual floods on cities and productive areas.

In response, authorities have initiated a "Risk Management Plan for Climate Change." This plan includes continuous monitoring, preventative measures, infrastructure maintenance, and the development of projects aimed at reducing the impact of potential floods on urban and agricultural areas.

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The conditions of El Niño have been present since mid-year and are strengthening.

The province is referencing data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which noted El Niño conditions strengthening since mid-year. Achieving a "Very Strong" classification requires equatorial Pacific water temperature anomalies of around 2°C, according to consensus models. Data from the Subsecretariat of Water Resources indicates widespread soil saturation, particularly in the northwest, central, and southeast regions, with several municipalities receiving over 50% of their annual average rainfall as early as April.

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To reach the 'Very Strong' category, consensus models contemplated in the report project anomalies of around 2°C in the temperature of the equatorial Pacific waters.