Can China restrain Iran? Gulf states test Beijing's influence

As the Iran war intensifies, Gulf Arab states are increasingly turning to China, rather than the United States, to exert economic pressure on Tehran and secure vital shipping lanes. This shift reflects a growing frustration among Gulf nations with the war's disruptive impact on their energy exports and regional stability.

Sources in the Gulf indicate that the states are testing Beijing's capacity and willingness to influence Iran, particularly concerning threats to the Bab el-Mandeb waterway in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. This push for a greater Chinese role stems from a perception that American power has limitations in resolving the conflict. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively engaged in diplomatic calls, while special envoy Zhai Jun has held talks in regional capitals and Iran, with Beijing stating its consistent efforts to stop the fighting and promote peace.

China's position as a significant buyer of Gulf oil and Iran's largest trading partner presents a unique opportunity for leverage, yet also entails sensitivities. Gulf governments reportedly approach these discussions discreetly, valuing their strong trade relationship with China. The ultimate hope is that Beijing will guide Tehran toward a negotiated settlement. However, some analysts suggest that a prolonged conflict might also serve China's strategic interests by increasing pressure on the United States.

Despite developing extensive trade and investment ties with Gulf Cooperation Council states since 2022, China has avoided publicly confronting Tehran's maritime threats. This cautious approach has fueled skepticism about Beijing's commitment to securing the region. While some observers note China's attempts to be more helpful, others question whether its influence is limited by a lack of will or capacity, especially when superpower rivalries dominate strategic calculations.