Can the AU make its current Sudan mission count?

A delegation from the African Union (AU) has begun a two-day visit to Sudan, aiming to broker a ceasefire, enhance humanitarian aid delivery, and restart political negotiations to end the devastating three-year conflict. The AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) is engaging with various Sudanese parties during this critical mission.

The visit comes at a challenging juncture in the war. While the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made gains in the capital, Khartoum, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) maintain strongholds in Darfur and have made Kordofan a key battleground. Despite shifts in the military balance, neither side has achieved a decisive victory, creating an environment where diplomacy must contend with ongoing battlefield ambitions.

The AU's objectives are multifaceted: securing a ceasefire, ensuring humanitarian access, and fostering a Sudanese-led political process. The council emphasizes that ending the fighting alone will not resolve the underlying issues that led to the conflict, referencing the collapse of Sudan's post-2019 transition and the 2021 military takeover.

The AU faces the dual challenge of de-escalating the violence to facilitate aid and talks, while also ensuring that any resolution is not merely an agreement between the two warring factions over power. The ongoing fighting in Kordofan highlights the continued intensity of the conflict, with control of the region potentially impacting strategic supply routes and troop movements.