Can Türkiye offer a solution to Iraq's search for stability?

More than two decades after the U.S.-led coalition invaded Iraq in 2003, the country still grapples with persistent political, security, and economic challenges, hindering its ability to fully restore stability as a functioning state. The post-invasion landscape saw the emergence of two major powers: the Shiite majority, comprising about 60% of the population, and the autonomous Kurdish administration in the north. These forces shaped the new political balance and the nation's fragmented structure.

Initially, relations between the U.S. and Iran were less confrontational. After the U.S. removed Saddam Hussein and established a new political order, Iraq gradually evolved into a sphere of Iranian influence. Iran, rather than helping Iraq become a strong state, focused on ensuring the new political order remained sustainable within its sphere. Meanwhile, the U.S. and U.K. focused on Iraq's oil regions, with the U.S. losing approximately 4,200 soldiers and nearly 36,000 wounded during years of conflict with Sunni insurgents and Iran-backed factions.

The rise of Daesh (ISIS) during the Syrian civil war led to the group seizing major Iraqi cities. In a complex turn of events, the Iraqi state, Iran, the U.S., and Turkmen forces found themselves allied against Daesh. The liberation of Iraqi cities marked a critical step toward recovery and rebuilding. As the U.S. began withdrawing, a new search for stability emerged, emphasizing economic development alongside security.

Two recent developments hold particular significance for Iraq. Türkiye's "terror-free Türkiye" initiative has steadily narrowed the PKK's operational space, which is expected to improve Iraq's security and strengthen the Iraqi state's authority as terrorist groups diminish. Concurrently, the Development Road Project is poised to reshape global energy and logistics routes, offering crucial opportunities for Iraq's economic development amidst evolving international transit networks.