Can US Senator Lindsey Graham's Ukraine initiatives survive without him?

The unexpected passing of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has cast a shadow over the future of his dedicated efforts supporting Ukraine. Graham, a prominent figure known for his close ties to President Donald Trump and his vocal advocacy for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government, played a significant role in shaping U.S. policy toward Kyiv. His absence leaves a critical void, particularly concerning two major areas: legislation aimed at sanctioning Russia and the provision of military aid to Ukraine.

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He was successful in leading President Trump to pivot in his position toward Ukraine.

These initiatives have recently gained momentum as Ukraine faces escalating attacks from Russia and increasing pressure to resolve the nearly 4.5-year-long conflict. Just last Friday, Graham and fellow senators announced an agreement with the White House to advance the "Sanctioning Russia Act." This bill had faced resistance from Trump, despite garnering co-sponsorship from 85 out of 100 senators. Trump had also recently indicated a willingness to grant Kyiv a license for producing interceptors for the Patriot defensive missile system, though Ukraine stresses an immediate need for more defensive munitions.

Senator Graham, 71, died on Saturday, a day after completing his tenth trip to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. During that visit, he had announced the breakthrough agreement on the Russia sanctions bill. For years, the senator from South Carolina had actively lobbied for military assistance for Ukraine and served as a crucial link between Kyiv and the Trump administration, often collaborating with Democratic colleagues. Last year, he was instrumental in arranging a critical minerals agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine, persuading Trump to support a plan that offered the U.S. preferential access to new Ukrainian mineral projects in exchange for investment.

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The senator’s good work here will be self-sustaining and self-executing.

Matthew Murray, a former Commerce Department official, noted Graham's success in influencing President Trump's stance on Ukraine. "The senator's good work here will be self-sustaining and self-executing," Murray commented. President Zelenskyy expressed his deep sadness, stating, "We remained in constant dialogue, and I will miss our conversations. We met twice in just the past week." Analysts, however, suggest Graham's overall record on Ukraine was complex, influenced by Trump's sometimes strained relationship with Zelenskyy, his "America First" foreign policy, and the costly war with Iran, which diverts U.S. resources and increases pressure to allow Russian oil shipments to stabilize energy prices.

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We remained in constant dialogue, and I will miss our conversations. We met twice in just the past week.

"It's a big loss for Ukraine. I don't think anyone should have any illusions about it," said Scott Anderson of the Brookings Institution. He emphasized Graham's role as an important behind-the-scenes influencer on Trump from the more internationalist wing of the Republican Party. Despite Graham's efforts, he was unable to persuade Trump to allow a vote on the sanctions bill, and the last major Ukraine aid legislation passed by both the House and Senate was...

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It’s a big loss for Ukraine. I don’t think anyone should have any illusions about it.