Can we trust the police's description of danger?

Norwegian police have for two decades painted a picture of a society growing more dangerous, even as official statistics suggest the opposite. Police leaders have repeatedly issued stark warnings about rising crime, particularly among minors, and the increasing capacity of criminal networks.

However, data from Statistics Norway (SSB) presents a different reality. Between 2004 and 2024, reported violent offenses per 1,000 inhabitants remained between 5.2 and 6.5. The number of homicides has actually decreased, averaging 28 annually from 2020-2024, down from an average of 33 between 2002-2019. Crimes against property have also seen a significant drop, with victims per 1,000 inhabitants nearly halving from 2005-2014 to 2015-2024.

Globally, Norway ranks among countries with the lowest homicide rates. Psychologist Steven Pinker's research indicates a long-term global decline in violence and homicide rates, suggesting society is becoming safer. The article questions why police narratives diverge so sharply from these trends.

The author posits a combination of factors: a desire within the police force to be perceived as protectors against dark threats, which garners media attention and a sense of heroism. This narrative, the article suggests, can feel personally validating, even if it doesn't align with statistical reality. The focus on dramatic incidents, like grenade attacks or child involvement in crime, amplifies this effect, making the warnings feel urgent and true to those delivering them.

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