Capital Waits, Business Delays: Poland's Investment Hesitation

Polish businesses are exhibiting a "landlord's syndrome," showing extreme caution and failing to invest even their own generated funds, according to Andrzej Halesiak, a board member of the Polish Development Fund (PFR).

Local Polish firms, responsible for 25-30% of total investments, have seen their investment expenditure relative to financial surplus drop to 45-50% in the last five years. This means they are not utilizing their own financial surpluses, let alone seeking external financing. Companies with foreign capital participation account for about 35% of investments, while state-controlled and municipal companies contribute the remaining 35-40%.

Halesiak noted that the ratio of external corporate debt to GDP has fallen from 45% in 2015 to 31% in 2025. He highlighted that corporate loans constitute only 12% of banks' portfolios, which is less than half the size of the household loan portfolio. This situation is attributed to regulatory "inflation" and rapid changes, leading companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Many have shifted from aggressive expansion to becoming cautious rentiers, opting for government bonds over real investments and focusing on replacement investments rather than large development projects.

Jakub Jaworowski, board member of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), confirmed the banking sector's significant liquidity. Banks are willing and able to finance businesses, but the primary barrier is the lack of demand for loans, especially from medium-sized companies. State-owned companies are approaching lending limits in many banks, while foreign-invested firms often rely on financing from their parent companies. BGK, however, is not experiencing a lack of demand for its preferential financing instruments, with approximately 70 billion PLN allocated to the energy sector alone from the National Recovery Plan last year.