Caspian Sea is slowly but surely drying up, scientists issue alarming message

The Caspian Sea, the world's largest inland body of water, is facing a critical water loss, shrinking by an area roughly the size of Sicily over the past three decades. Scientists warn that human activity, not just climate change, is the primary driver behind this alarming decline.

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It cannot be explained by climate change alone.

Since the mid-1990s, the Caspian Sea's water level has fallen by about two meters, resulting in a loss of approximately 24,000 square kilometers of water surface. While rising temperatures and increased evaporation contribute, Amir Aghakouchak, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, and co-author of a recent study, states that climate change accounts for only about 30% of the water level change. The remaining majority is linked to human interventions.

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We must consider this the worst-case scenario for the Caspian.

"It cannot be explained by climate change alone," Aghakouchak noted. Rainfall in the region has remained stable, and increased evaporation explains only a third of the water loss. The rest is attributed to the growing demand for water resources. Countries bordering the Caspian have built large dams for hydroelectric power and irrigation, significantly reducing the amount of water flowing into the sea. The Volga River, which supplies about 80% of the Caspian's water, is particularly affected by these diversions.

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From an ecological point of view, these two lakes are dead.

Aghakouchak avoids singling out specific projects, suggesting the problem stems from the cumulative effect of numerous small water withdrawals across different locations. The most concerning scenario, he warns, is the Caspian Sea following the fate of other large regional lakes like the Aral Sea and Iran's Lake Urmia, which have experienced severe ecological degradation. "From an ecological point of view, these two lakes are dead," Aghakouchak cautioned. "Because we have seen how they degraded, we must consider this the worst-case scenario for the Caspian."

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We cannot blame a single project. It is likely the collective effect of many small water withdrawals from different points, which in total contribute to the significant reduction of the Volga's supply.