Cattle ranchers foresee border opening moderating Mexico's meat export boom

The Mexican meat industry predicts that the gradual reopening of the U.S. border to live cattle will temper the extraordinary growth seen in processed meat exports. This surge occurred during the 14-month closure, which compelled Mexico to retain more cattle domestically, channeling them to national feedlots and processing plants.

Alonso Fernández Flores, president of the National Association of Federal Inspection Type Establishments (Anetif), explained that this shift strengthened the export of higher value-added cuts and helped packers offset losses from the live cattle export halt. Anetif reported that the value of Mexican beef exports increased by 65%, more than double the volume growth of 31.8%, driven by high international prices.

With the resumption of live animal exports, the industry expects a decrease in the surplus of cattle destined for domestic processing. This should lead to a stabilization of the previously extraordinary growth in meat sales. Fernández noted that the reopening will be phased, with adjustments based on ongoing sanitary risk assessments and control measure implementation.

The process begins August 24th at the Douglas, Arizona port of entry, with subsequent expansion to other crossings contingent on meeting sanitary protocols for controlling cattle screwworm. Sonora and Chihuahua, considered lower sanitary risk states, will be the first to benefit. Despite the return of live cattle exports, U.S. demand for Mexican meat is expected to remain strong due to historically low U.S. cattle herd levels. Furthermore, the 14-month closure allowed Mexico to enhance its processing infrastructure and solidify its position in the higher-value packaged meat market.