Cement Paradox: Tajikistan plans new plants amid excess capacity and shortages

Tajikistan is embarking on an ambitious plan to construct four new cement plants within the next two to three years, a move intended to more than double the nation's cement production capacity to approximately 6 million tons per year. The government anticipates these new facilities will not only meet domestic demand and stabilize prices but also create around 5,000 new jobs.

This directive comes at a time of acute cement shortage and soaring prices across the country. In Dushanbe, the cost of a cement bag has reportedly increased by 40-50% in a single week, with supplies often depleted by midday. Similar price hikes and supply disruptions are reported in the Khatlon and Sughd regions, while Khorog has experienced a near month-long cement deficit.

Despite the apparent need for increased production, the plan faces scrutiny. Tajikistan has transformed into a significant cement producer and exporter over the last decade, with current industry capacity already exceeding 5 million tons annually. The current crisis, characterized by shortages amidst this apparent overcapacity, suggests underlying issues beyond the sheer number of plants. Factors cited for the shortage include simultaneous plant repairs during peak construction season, logistical failures, increased exports to Afghanistan, and poor coordination among manufacturers, intermediaries, and retailers.

The expansion plan raises significant environmental and health concerns. Critics question whether the drive for rapid industrial growth will come at the cost of the country's environment and the well-being of its citizens, a recurring issue with Tajikistan's industrial development.