EBRD forecasts Tajikistan’s economy to grow by 7.9% in 2026

Tajikistan's economy is projected to experience robust growth, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasting a 7.9% expansion in 2026. This follows a strong performance in previous years, with the economy growing by an estimated 8.4% in 2024 and projected to maintain that rate in 2025.

The EBRD's "Regional Economic Prospects" report highlights that growth in early 2026 was driven by heightened activity in sectors such as trade, transport, and communications. Manufacturing and electricity production also showed strong dynamics. A significant increase in investments in fixed capital, up 34.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, is partly attributed to substantial government spending, notably on the Rogun Hydropower Plant project.

In terms of foreign trade, imports saw a considerable rise of 16.6% due to strong domestic demand, while exports remained relatively stable. The report also notes Tajikistan's success in maintaining a budget surplus in 2025, bolstered by high tax revenues, even as spending on social security and energy increased. Moody's recent upgrade of Tajikistan's sovereign credit rating to B2 with a stable outlook reflects the country's sustained economic resilience and enhanced public finance management.

Despite these positive indicators, the EBRD cautions about growing inflationary pressures, partly linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The bank anticipates a general slowdown across Central Asia, with regional growth expected to decrease from 6.9% in 2025 to 5.6% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027. However, Tajikistan, along with other Central Asian nations, is expected to maintain some of the highest growth rates among the EBRD's countries of operation. Key risks for the region include energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, economic sanctions, and economic slowdowns in Russia and China.