Centrão being Centrão: Parties maintain strategy of not choosing between Lula and Flávio

Parties within Brazil's "Centrão" bloc are demonstrating a strategic neutrality in the upcoming presidential election, a move that aligns with a long-standing political playbook. The União Progressista and Republicanos parties, for instance, have opted to remain neutral in the presidential race and many state-level contests. This approach, often attributed to pragmatism or a lack of programmatic identity, can be understood as a calculated strategy in a multi-party presidential system.

Political scientists identify two main trajectories for parties seeking power in such systems. One is the majoritarian path: fielding a strong presidential candidate and aiming to directly control the executive branch. This strategy carries high risks and high rewards, as seen with parties like the PT and historically the PSDB, and more recently the PL on the right. The alternative is to concentrate resources on building the largest possible congressional delegation, thereby becoming a pivotal player in the post-election coalition.

Parties that remain neutral nationally preserve their options and avoid the reputational costs associated with campaigning against a future coalition partner, especially in a polarized environment. By not aligning with either presidential pole, Centrão parties can focus their efforts on electing deputies and senators. This maximizes their value on the day after the election, as they become available to negotiate with the winner. The larger their delegation, the greater their leverage.

This strategy also allows parties to accommodate diverse local preferences without alienating potential national allies. The key asset for these organizations, therefore, appears not to be the ability to elect a president, but rather to be indispensable to whoever does. In Brazil's fragmented and polarized presidential system, choosing not to choose early may be the most effective way to ensure continued influence and negotiation power after the election.