China Expands Influence in Central Asia as Russia's Role Diminishes

China is significantly increasing its economic influence in Central Asia, with trade between China and the region's nations growing by 12% to over $106 billion in the first 10 months of 2025. China primarily exports electronics, machinery, and high-tech products, while importing agricultural goods, chemicals, and steel from the region.

Chinese investment in Central Asia is also expanding rapidly, reaching nearly $36 billion by mid-2025, according to the Eurasian Development Bank. Kazakhstan has attracted the largest share, with $11.4 billion invested, mainly by Chinese oil companies like CNPC and Sinopec. Uzbekistan follows with $10.7 billion in investments, including projects for solar power plants and gas storage modernization.

Kazakhstan is actively seeking Chinese investment, signing numerous agreements. The region views China as a stable partner amid global geopolitical uncertainty, leading to increased openness towards deepening economic ties. Cooperation spans various sectors, including logistics.

To facilitate trade, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Turkey signed an agreement in November to expand rail freight along the southern Eurasian transit corridor. This initiative aims to streamline transport between China and Europe, offering an alternative to the Russian route, which is seen as less reliable due to sanctions. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project is expected to be completed by 2028, potentially handling 15 million tons of cargo annually by 2032.