China-Japan flights slashed 57% as visa fees soar; Vietnam benefits

The upcoming summer travel season between China and Japan is set for a significant downturn, with scheduled flights expected to drop by 57% compared to last year. This sharp decline is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions and a substantial increase in Japan's visa fees for Chinese citizens. China remains the only one among Japan's top five tourist source markets that requires a visa for entry. Starting July 1, Japan will implement a fivefold increase in its single-entry visa fee, raising it from the current 3,000 yen to 15,000 yen. The fee for multiple-entry visas will also see a substantial hike, from 6,000 yen to 30,000 yen. This move, the first adjustment since 1978, is expected to disproportionately affect Chinese tourists. Data from aviation analytics firm OAG reveals that in July, only 2,629 round-trip flights are scheduled between China and Japan, a stark contrast to the 6,317 flights last year. August is projected to see a similar reduction, with 2,641 flights compared to 6,127 in 2025. OAG's Asia regional head, Mayur Patel, noted that current passenger demand aligns with airlines' planned capacity during this period, amidst ongoing geopolitical challenges impacting the travel market. The large-scale cancellation of China-Japan flights began in November last year, following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks about potential military intervention in a Taiwan conflict, which angered Beijing. China subsequently issued a travel advisory, urging its citizens to avoid visiting Japan. As of June 23, nearly 9,000 flights from China to Japan have been canceled this year. While Japanese airlines have maintained their flight capacity on China routes, primarily to support transit networks through major Japanese hubs for travelers to North America, the shift in Chinese tourist preferences is evident. Patel indicated that some of the travel demand previously directed towards Japan is now moving to Southeast Asia, with Vietnam being a major beneficiary.

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The geopolitical challenges continue to affect the travel market, and passenger demand is largely in line with the capacity airlines have planned for this period.