China overtakes Russia as Kazakhstan's top trading partner

China is solidifying its position as Kazakhstan's premier trading partner, having overtaken Russia in the nation's foreign trade structure during the first half of this year.

From January to June, China accounted for 23.2% of Kazakhstan's total foreign trade turnover, a significant increase from Russia's 18.4%. The total bilateral trade volume with China reached $16.65 billion, while trade with Russia amounted to $13.22 billion, according to data from the Bureau of National Statistics.

This shift is notable not only in terms of volume but also in the composition of trade. Kazakhstan imported approximately $9.14 billion worth of goods from China during the first six months, contrasting with about $9.74 billion imported from Russia. However, the nature of these imports differs considerably. China is increasingly providing Kazakhstan with essential machinery, equipment, electrical goods, and other investment products. In contrast, Russia continues to be a primary supplier of fuel, food, and industrial inputs.

The export structure further highlights this evolving dynamic. Kazakhstan exported around $7.51 billion to China, primarily consisting of ores, concentrates, copper, oil, and other raw materials. Exports to Russia were more diversified, including metals, chemicals, machinery, and equipment.

China's growing influence is particularly relevant as Kazakhstan embarks on a new investment cycle. The government projects that goods imports will climb to $88.4 billion by 2029, with exports anticipated to reach $88.5 billion. An analysis by Tengenomika points out that this changing trade relationship signifies more than just a new top trading partner. It indicates a division of roles where China is becoming a crucial supplier for new production and infrastructure needs, while Russia maintains its importance in providing goods and inputs for Kazakhstan's current economy. This evolving trade pattern underscores Kazakhstan's deepening economic ties with China, especially in investment-driven sectors, alongside Russia's continued role in the domestic supply chain.

“

China is increasingly becoming a supplier of the machinery, equipment and components needed for new production and infrastructure, while Russia continues to play a major role in supplying the goods and inputs needed by Kazakhstan’s economy today