China's birth slump adds to aging burden: researcher

The demographic dividend that fueled China's economic miracle is now a significant burden, according to a Taiwanese researcher. Wang Chan-hsi of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research highlights a dramatic decline in China's birthrate since 2016, with last year's newborn numbers plummeting to just 44% of the 2016 level. This sharp drop, the lowest since 1949, has resulted in four consecutive years of negative population growth.

“

China’s population is rapidly aging and moving toward a low-fertility society, with the demographic dividend that fueled three decades of rapid economic growth now turning into a demographic burden, according to a Taiwanese researcher.

The consequences are already being felt acutely. The closure of 20,000 kindergartens in 2024 alone has led to the loss of over 240,000 preschool teaching jobs. Primary schools are facing an annual deficit of more than 2 million students, forcing provinces and cities to contract teaching positions and increasing unemployment. This situation is particularly concerning given China's rapid aging, which is outpacing its economic development – a phenomenon of 'growing old before getting rich'.

“

Last year, the number of newborns fell to 7.92 million, only 44 percent of the 2016 level.

Furthermore, a stark gender imbalance persists, with a surplus of men in rural areas and women in cities. This disparity, where nearly 30 million unmarried young men reside in rural China and over 20 million unmarried young women are in major cities, further depresses marriage and birth rates. The combination of an aging populace, weak consumer spending, and uneven wealth distribution, particularly for rural pensioners, paints a grim picture for China's future economic and social stability. From Taiwan's perspective, this demographic crisis in mainland China presents a stark contrast to its own, more managed, demographic challenges and underscores the potential for significant internal instability.

“

It not only dropped below the projected thresholds of 9 million and 8 million, but was also the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, China’s total population has fallen to 1.40489 billion, recording four consecutive years of negative growth.