China’s falling emissions amid Iran war fuel hopes of a decarbonisation turning point

China’s carbon dioxide emissions have fallen by 1% since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran, according to an analysis that links the decline to plunging oil consumption and the continued rise of electric vehicles and public transport.

The shift has prompted analysts to ask whether China’s demand for oil will fully return even if crude prices fall. The country is the world’s largest oil importer, leaving its economy exposed to disruptions and price shocks tied to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The analysis points to clean energy as a buffer against those shocks. Lower oil use, combined with growing electric vehicle sales and greater use of public transport, reduced emissions while easing the impact of oil-market turmoil.

China remains the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter. Yet the findings have strengthened hopes that its economy could be nearing a watershed in decarbonisation, with emissions beginning to decline as cleaner forms of transport and energy gain ground.