China's 'Gray Zone' Tactics Escalate Pressure on Taiwan, Expert Warns

China's evolving strategy towards Taiwan, characterized by "gray zone" tactics, is steadily encroaching on the island's autonomy, according to Canadian academic Shen Rong-chin. This approach, likened to "slicing the sausage," aims to gradually tighten control and potentially achieve unification without resorting to military force.

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For many years, Beijing has gradually evolved, adopting a 'gray zone' strategy. When the middle ground disappears, Beijing is one step closer to military action against Taiwan, leaving only one step remaining. Blockades can be turned into reality at any time.

Shen highlights that as the "middle ground" disappears, Beijing moves closer to military action, making exercises like blockades a constant threat that could be "made real at any time." The ultimate goal, he suggests, is to compel Taiwan's surrender without a fight. This escalating pressure poses a significant challenge to the long-standing U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity," which was designed to deter a Chinese invasion.

The book "Defending Taiwan" by Eyck Freymann, recently reviewed in Foreign Affairs, proposes a shift in U.S. policy from "strategic ambiguity" to "structural ambiguity." Freymann argues that the current ambiguity is insufficient to counter China's gray zone tactics. The book also explores the potential consequences of a Chinese blockade, where Taiwan could quickly face shortages of energy and food. Freymann suggests the U.S. might need to airlift advanced weapons, risking confrontation with Chinese aircraft.

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Last month, Chinese vessels inspected nearly 200 ships passing off Taiwan's east coast, an action Beijing claimed was part of special law enforcement and traffic control operations, but which outside observers viewed as a quasi-blockade intended to practice China's ability to control the waters around Taiwan.

Freymann also details the economic tools available to the U.S., such as sanctions and export controls, but acknowledges the difficulty of applying them to China due to its global economic significance. The book emphasizes that both political and economic deterrence must be paired with credible punishment measures. However, it questions whether the U.S. possesses the resolve to sustain escalating pressure, citing a past instance where Washington conceded on tariffs when Beijing threatened rare earth exports.

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The U.S. can airlift advanced weapons to Taiwan, forcing Beijing to risk intercepting or shooting down U.S. aircraft. But Beijing can also force Washington to act: Because resupplying an island as large as Taiwan requires sea transport, China could use its vast maritime militia and fishing fleets to blockade U.S. vessels. Washington would then face the choice: either force its way through Chinese vessels (potentially causing Chinese casualties) or abandon resupplying the island.

Ultimately, "Defending Taiwan" suggests that if the U.S. is serious about defending Taiwan, it cannot ignore the possibility of China achieving its goals through non-military means. The book calls for a proactive strategy to counter China's gray zone tactics, a crucial read for both Taiwan and the United States, according to Shen.

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The U.S. decision to concede on tariffs when Beijing threatened to cut off rare earth and critical mineral supplies shows Washington's unwillingness, or perhaps unpreparedness, to bear the costs of large-scale escalation.