China's high-speed rail 'nightmare' a warning for Taiwan, says ex-official

David Huang, a former minister without portfolio in Taiwan's Executive Yuan, has cautioned against the uncritical pursuit of high-speed rail expansion, drawing a stark parallel with China's experience.

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High-speed rail can also become a nightmare.

Huang pointed to China's ambitious high-speed rail network, built in just two decades, as a cautionary tale. While acknowledging its role in advancing engineering and manufacturing, he argued that its success blinded local governments to potential pitfalls. These governments, eager for political gains and land development opportunities, treated high-speed rail as a panacea, similar to current demands for a line to Yilan.

He described how the drive for high-speed rail in China often detached from genuine transportation needs, becoming a tool for officials to boost their records, speculate on land, and inflate GDP. The reality, Huang noted, was often empty stations and grand plazas. Instead of fostering local prosperity, the convenience of high-speed rail created a "straw effect," accelerating the migration of young people to major cities for work and residence, thus exacerbating population drain.

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The Chinese high-speed rail was hailed as an economic myth, and local governments treated it as a panacea.

Furthermore, Huang highlighted the immense ongoing costs of maintaining these vast systems, regardless of passenger numbers. He revealed that over 20 Chinese high-speed rail stations have been idled or delayed due to operating losses. The China State Railway Group's debt has ballooned to approximately NT$27 trillion, with only a few core lines like Beijing-Shanghai proving profitable. Most branch lines rely on cross-subsidies, making high-speed rail a significant fiscal burden for China.

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The reality quickly gave a cruel response.

Huang observed that China is now tightening policies, setting passenger flow thresholds for new lines and restricting redundant construction. He contrasted this with Taiwan's continued push for high-speed rail extensions, particularly to Yilan and Hualien. Given Taiwan's demographic trends, an aging population, declining birthrate, and negative population growth, Huang questioned whether new lines address real needs or serve political agendas. He concluded by urging a frank assessment: is a new rail line a genuine public necessity or a political project, warning that ignoring this question could lead Taiwan to repeat China's costly mistakes.

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The 'straw effect' made more young people accelerate towards big cities to settle and work.