China's PLA Would Fail in 9 Landing Attempts on Taiwan, War Game Suggests

A recent US-led war game suggests that a full-scale amphibious assault by China's People's Liberation Army on Taiwan's western coast would likely fail in its initial stages. The simulation, which modeled nine different landing scenarios across key locations like Taoyuan, Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, found that the PLA could not establish a stable beachhead capable of supporting follow-on forces.

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The first wave of landing forces would be limited, and it would be difficult to keep heavy equipment and supplies in place in time, making the landing troops face the problem of continuous reinforcement.

The study, published by former US defense intelligence analysts, highlights critical vulnerabilities in a potential PLA invasion. Researchers found that while the PLA has significant roll-on/roll-off transport capacity, the initial wave of troops, estimated to be around one marine brigade, would be heavily reliant on regular amphibious vessels. These forces would face resupply challenges if the landing fleet had to return to China for reinforcements, creating a critical window of vulnerability.

Furthermore, the simulation incorporated Taiwan's ground transportation infrastructure. The study suggests that Taiwan's extensive road network would enable its defending forces to rapidly concentrate troops at any landing site. In contrast, the PLA's attempts to interdict these routes with long-range rockets and aircraft would be insufficient to continuously block the numerous potential avenues of reinforcement for the defenders.

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The defending forces can concentrate their forces quickly using the dense road network from different garrisons.

Despite the nine simulated landing attempts failing to establish a firm foothold, the researchers intend to continue their analysis by examining coastal areas between Tainan and Taichung. This next phase will explore different landing scenarios in regions with distinct geographical and demographic characteristics. It is important to note that this study is based on a quantitative wargaming model and does not represent a definitive prediction of actual combat outcomes.

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The PLA's existing regular amphibious vessels can transport at most about one marine brigade at a time, as well as several days' worth of fuel and ammunition.