China's rise will turn Thucydides Trap on its head

The South China Morning Post, a publication deeply embedded in the region, views the concept of the Thucydides Trap not merely as an academic theory but as a critical lens through which to understand the current geopolitical landscape. President Xi Jinping's invocation of this ancient Greek warning during his meeting with Donald Trump underscores Beijing's strategic framing of its relationship with the United States.

“

The Lessons of the Long Confucian Peace

Our analysis delves into historical precedents, particularly the "Long Confucian Peace" in East Asia. This period, spanning centuries, offers a stark contrast to the confrontational dynamic often portrayed in Western media. The shared Confucian ideology fostered a regional order centered on China, emphasizing harmony and facilitating diplomacy. This historical perspective suggests alternative models of international relations that prioritize stability and mutual benefit over zero-sum competition.

“

from 1598 to 1894, most of East Asia – China, Japan, Korea, the Ryukyu Kingdom (now part of Japan) and Vietnam – was largely devoid of internal fighting

While Western narratives often focus on the inevitability of conflict between rising and established powers, our examination of the tribute system highlights a period of sustained regional peace. The disruption of this order by external forces like Western imperialism and Japan's militarism serves as a cautionary tale. Understanding these historical dynamics is crucial for navigating the complexities of the present, offering insights that may be overlooked in a purely Western-centric analysis.

“

The key to this peace, the authors say, “was a shared ideology: Confucianism”. Led by China, they were all Confucian states, “so they had a joint political philosophy that emphasised harmony and made it easy for them to engage in diplomacy. They established an interconnected system of regional governance centred on China, the most powerful state, that helped ensure security and prosperity. They also traded frequently.”