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Citigroup cuts Micron target price, sees memory prices peaking in Q2 2025

From Liberty Times · () Chinese

Translated from Chinese, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Citigroup analysts predict that DRAM and NAND prices will slow down each quarter for the next year, peaking in the second quarter of 2025.
  • Citigroup maintained a 'buy' rating for Micron but lowered its price target from $1,400 to $1,150 per share.
  • The expansion of Chinese memory production is seen as a long-term risk due to increased competition and potential impact on global pricing.

Citigroup analysts forecast a slowdown in memory chip prices, with both DRAM and NAND expected to peak in the second quarter of 2025. The firm maintained its "buy" rating on Micron Technology but reduced its price target for the company's stock by 17.8%, from $1,400 to $1,150 per share. This adjustment reflects expectations of a gradual deceleration in price growth over the next four quarters.

DRAM and NAND prices will slow down each quarter for the next four quarters, and peak in the second quarter of next year.

— Citigroup analystsThe analysts' forecast for memory chip prices.

Despite the price forecast, Citigroup's outlook for Micron remains positive, though the target reduction signals caution. Investors appear to be reacting to the changing market dynamics, as shares of Micron and SanDisk experienced pressure, closing lower on Friday. Micron closed down 0.44% at $877.57, while SanDisk fell 3.68% to $1,212.21.

Citigroup analysts maintained a "buy" rating on Micron but lowered its target price per share from $1,400 to $1,150, a reduction of 17.8%.

— Citigroup analystsThe adjustment to Micron's stock target price.

Looking further ahead, Citigroup anticipates a 3% decline in DRAM prices in the latter half of 2027 compared to the first half, a revision from previous, more stable predictions. NAND prices are expected to drop by 5% over the same period. Consequently, the firm has lowered its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Micron for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 by 1% and 2%, respectively.

DRAM prices are expected to fall 3% in the second half of 2027 compared to the first half, a change from previous predictions.

— Citigroup analystsThe revised forecast for DRAM prices.

A significant long-term risk identified by Citigroup is the expansion of China's memory production capacity. While U.S. export controls aim to limit Chinese products in certain markets, increased exports to regions like Europe could disrupt global pricing. "The intensifying competition and capacity expansion by Chinese competitors in the NAND and DRAM markets represent the biggest risk in our assessment," the analysts stated.

NAND prices are expected to fall 5% in the second half of 2027 compared to the first half.

— Citigroup analystsThe revised forecast for NAND prices.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Liberty Times in Chinese. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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