Climate Claim Dropped: Directorate Admits Error

Norway's Directorate of Petroleum has dropped a statement asserting that its production scenarios for the Norwegian continental shelf align with global climate goals. This move is being hailed as a "complete victory" by the Norwegian Climate Foundation, which views it as an implicit admission that the previous claim was incorrect.

Previously, the 2024 resource report stated that all three scenarios for oil and gas production up to 2050 were in line with successfully meeting the Paris Agreement's climate targets. However, the newly released 2026 resource report omits any such assessment. Lars-Henrik Paarup Michelsen, head of the Norwegian Climate Foundation, stated, "The Directorate of Petroleum now admits that it is wrong that all their production scenarios are in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. It is a complete victory for the Norwegian Climate Foundation."

Michelsen added that the directorate should have specified that not all scenarios are compatible with climate commitments. The directorate's scenarios present varying production levels by 2050: a baseline scenario shows production more than halved, a high scenario projects around 65 percent of current levels, and a low scenario estimates about five percent of current levels.

Director Torgeir Stordal of the Directorate of Petroleum confirmed the omission, explaining that the previous report referenced a 2023 study on wage formation and the Norwegian economy, which suggested the directorate's outlooks fell within the range of global oil and gas production declines estimated by the IEA and the UN's IPCC for the 1.5-degree target. "We did not make our own assessments of the climate consequences. The reference has not been carried forward in this year's report," Stordal said. He noted that the Resource Report 2026 is more focused on the resource base and development paths for oil and gas activities on the Norwegian shelf.