Concerns mount in China’s space sector that Musk’s Starship will be a failure

Doubts are mounting within China's space sector regarding the viability of SpaceX's Starship, the world's most powerful rocket, with significant engineering and financial hurdles perceived as major obstacles to its success.

Starship's most recent flight, conducted shortly before the company's anticipated initial public offering (IPO), was described by SpaceX as "mostly successful." However, the test revealed engine failures in both the first stage Super Heavy Booster and the Starship upper stage. Observers noted on Chinese social media that after the booster entered the Gulf of Mexico at high speed, Starship itself "barely made it" to its designated return zone in the Indian Ocean.

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A fine scientific experiment, but not a perfect story for a much-anticipated IPO.

Commenters in China pointed to the reliability of Starship's upgraded Raptor 3 engines as a key issue. These engines have undergone redesigns for increased thrust and reduced weight. One online commentator remarked that while the test flight was a "fine scientific experiment," it was "not a perfect story for a much-anticipated IPO."

SpaceX has not officially confirmed its IPO date, but media reports suggest a listing as early as June 12. The ambition for high-frequency and reliable Starship launches, crucial for promises such as orbital data centers and lunar and Martian landings, appears to be "still out of sight" according to these observers.

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High frequency and reliability launches of Starship – as a must for delivering big promises such as orbital data centres and moon and Mars landings – are still out of sight.