Coolcations: Vacations in the cold. Heatwaves boost interest in a new trend

Europe is experiencing a significant shift in tourism trends, with travelers increasingly seeking cooler destinations to escape record-breaking heatwaves and devastating wildfires. The phenomenon, dubbed 'coolcations,' reflects a growing discomfort with extreme temperatures that have plagued popular southern European destinations.

Recent events, including widespread wildfires in France and Spain that forced mass evacuations, and temperatures regularly exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in the Mediterranean region, are making traditional summer holidays untenable for many. While Poland has experienced some heatwaves, regions like Italy face red alerts, and Greece anticipates severe storms following the heat, highlighting the volatile weather conditions.

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But this leading position coexists with an important structural challenge: climate change. (...) Much of the industry's charm is due to climatic conditions – which are now changing at a rapid pace.

Research indicates a direct correlation between extreme heat and reduced tourist return rates. A study analyzing credit card usage in Spain found that tourists experiencing temperatures significantly above the average were less likely to revisit. Initially, an 8-degree Celsius deviation reduced return probability by 13.8%. More recent data suggests that even a 4-degree Celsius increase can decrease the likelihood of a return visit by 15%, indicating a heightened sensitivity to heat among travelers.

This evolving traveler behavior poses a structural challenge to tourism-dependent economies, particularly in southern Europe. As climate change intensifies, the industry faces pressure to adapt. Experts note that while the post-pandemic tourism rebound has been strong, the sector's reliance on favorable climatic conditions is becoming a liability. Consequently, there is a noticeable trend of tourists opting for northern European locales or destinations less affected by extreme heat, signaling a potential long-term restructuring of European travel patterns.

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In particular, when the temperature exceeded the long-term average by 8 degrees Celsius – which we consider extreme heat – the probability of a repeat visit decreased by 13.8%.