Corner kick: Money scores the goals

The old adage from German coach Otto Rehhagel, "money doesn't score goals," might be outdated in modern football. While Rehhagel used the phrase to criticize high transfer fees, the reality in today's World Cup seems to suggest otherwise: money, or rather the market value of players, does indeed play a significant role in determining success.

This analysis proposes a simpler, more objective method for predicting match outcomes than complex statistical rankings like FIFA or Elo. By examining the total market value of a national team's players – essentially what clubs pay for them – one can gauge their potential. This figure reflects the collective worth of the squad, offering a clear indicator of a team's strength.

The results from the World Cup's round of 16 appear to support this theory. Most of the higher-valued teams advanced, with only Brazil being a notable exception, falling to Norway. The top three most valuable teams – France, England, and Spain – have all secured spots in the quarterfinals. Furthermore, the tournament's leading scorers, Messi, Haaland, and Mbappe, are among the world's most expensive players, reinforcing the link between financial value and on-field performance.