Could Berlin soon have a left-wing coalition? The latest election polls

Berlin's CDU and The Left are running almost neck and neck ahead of the September 20 election, according to the latest NZZ election trend. The Greens and AfD follow at a short distance, while the Social Democrats, who currently govern with the CDU, have fallen well behind.

The CDU recently changed its lead candidate, just over two months before the vote for Berlin's House of Representatives. Governing Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew his candidacy after months of criticism over inaccurate statements about his handling of the major power outage in January. Stefan Evers, formerly Berlin's finance and culture senator and Wegner's deputy, is now leading the CDU campaign. Evers previously served as secretary-general of the Berlin CDU and helped run its successful 2023 campaign. He does not represent a political break with the outgoing Senate.

The Left is contesting the election with Elif Eralp, a lawyer whose parents moved to Germany after Turkey's 1980 military coup. Eralp is campaigning for tougher action against illegal excessive rents and large housing companies. The NZZ trend combines several polls, giving greater weight to newer surveys. In the first poll after Wegner's replacement in mid-July, the CDU appeared to benefit, although The Left also gained and reached first place in an individual poll for the second time in a row.

The latest figures leave the current CDU-SPD coalition without a majority. A coalition of The Left, the Greens and the SPD would have a clear majority, while a CDU-Green-SPD alliance would also be mathematically possible. Any new government would face pressure to deliver on transport and housing. Berlin lacks sufficient housing, and advertised rents are nearly 70 percent higher than a decade ago. Unlike voters in the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, who also vote in September, Berliners place less emphasis on migration, the economy and education. That issue mix suits The Left's campaign on affordable housing and social concerns.