Could Hungary's ex-Premier Orbán flee to the U.S.?

The historic election defeat of Fidesz and Viktor Orbán marks a profound domestic political turning point for Hungary and is expected to have significant foreign policy consequences extending beyond Europe. The outcome is particularly relevant for Hungarian-American relations, which had become notably close over the past decade due to the strong personal and political alliance between Orbán and former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Orbán was the only leading European Union politician to openly campaign for Trump in his last three U.S. presidential elections. This close relationship was crucial for Orbán, as Trump's victories lent international legitimacy to his own "System of National Cooperation," often described as illiberal. The shared political language of sovereignty, anti-globalism, and criticism of elites bolstered Orbán's narrative on the global stage.

Beyond ideological alignment, Orbán's support for Trump served as a response to persistent political rejection from Democratic U.S. administrations and as a counterpoint to the European Union's rule-of-law criticisms. Through his personal connection with Trump, Orbán projected an image of himself not merely as a leader from a small Central European state but as a significant figure in a broader Western conservative movement.

However, this relationship harbored a fundamental contradiction that Trump largely overlooked. While Orbán's ideology aligned with Trumpism, his foreign policy increasingly diverged from Washington's stance, particularly through his pro-Russia and pro-China policies. For many American conservatives, Orbán's system offered a seemingly functional model for transforming Trumpism into a lasting political order, making Hungary a prototype for the future of MAGA.

Influential conservative circles in the U.S., including organizations like the Heritage Foundation and CPAC, viewed Orbán as a leader who could not only articulate conservative values but also consistently win elections with those messages. Allies of Trump, such as J. D. Vance, frequently portrayed Hungary as a European bastion of conservative and Christian values, with Budapest actively supporting international conservative networks and forums.