Croatian Seismologist Debunks Earthquake Prediction Myths

Hrvoje Tkalčić, a distinguished Croatian seismologist and geophysicist, has spent over half his life living outside Croatia, pursuing his research on the Earth's deepest layers from Australia. Despite the distance, he maintains a strong connection to his homeland, viewing it as an integral part of his identity and sense of belonging.

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Earthquakes are not just disasters but also a consequence of the fact that the Earth is an active planet.

Tkalčić's scientific journey took him from Zagreb and Berkeley to Canberra, Australia, where he is a member of the Australian Academy of Sciences and a corresponding member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts. He clarifies that his departure from Croatia was not an escape but a pursuit of opportunities to advance his research, build his scientific group, and develop projects in an environment that offered the best conditions.

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Life brought me to the farthest continent, but I don't regret it because I followed my calling. At the same time, I continued to maintain contacts with Croatia, and in the end, everything comes to fruition.

He regularly visits Croatia, delivers lectures, collaborates with colleagues, and participates in projects, particularly with the Faculty of Science at the University of Zagreb. This ongoing connection is vital to him. Tkalčić also aims to bridge the gap between science and the public through his book, "Earthquakes: The Giants That Sometimes Wake." He designed it not as a dense textbook but as an accessible narrative of scientific discovery, field adventures, and the enduring questions about our planet.

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Croatia is part of my identity, language, and sense of belonging. This constant connection is very important to me.

"Science today is not just about publishing scientific papers. It's necessary to know how to communicate with journalists and the wider public," Tkalčić explains. He highlights Andrija Mohorovičić, a pioneer in seismology, as an inspiration for not dismissing data that didn't fit expectations. The earthquakes in Zagreb and Petrinja in 2020 underscored the importance of clearly communicating the capabilities and limitations of science to the public. Tkalčić warns that earthquakes cannot be predicted like weather forecasts, though long-term probabilities and seismic hazard assessments are possible.

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Today, science is not just about publishing scientific papers. It's necessary to know how to communicate with journalists and the wider public.