Cuba's annual inflation continues to rise, reaching 15.89% in May

Cuba's annual inflation rate continued its upward trend in May, reaching 15.89%, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). This marks a significant increase of over one percentage point from the previous month, with the monthly inflation rate surging by 1.85%. This persistent rise consolidates a pattern observed in recent months, largely attributed to the economic shock caused by U.S. oil sanctions that have broadly driven up prices, especially for food and transportation.

The ONEI report highlights substantial year-on-year price increases in various categories. Restaurants and Hotels saw a 26.54% rise, followed by Transportation at 21.75%, Education at 19.49%, and Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages at 19.24%. Housing Services also experienced an 18.17% increase. In contrast, the Health sector showed the lowest inflation at 0.49%, with Communications, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, and Recreation and Culture also reporting relatively low increases.

Economists, however, express skepticism about the official figures. Many independent analysts believe that the ONEI's statistics do not adequately reflect the realities of Cuba's informal market and private sector, suggesting that the true inflation rate could be considerably higher. The island has been grappling with an inflationary spiral since a monetary reform in 2021, with prices reportedly quadrupling between 2021 and 2025 according to ONEI data. Cuba is currently facing its worst economic crisis in decades, characterized by shortages of basic goods, high inflation, economic contraction, increasing dollarization, and frequent daily power outages.