Datafolha: 46% more worried about election than in 2022, while 57% are more determined to vote

Nearly half of Brazilian voters say they are more concerned about the outcome of this year’s presidential election than they were in 2022, according to a Datafolha poll. Forty-six percent reported greater concern, while 28% said their level of concern was unchanged and 24% said it was lower. Two percent did not answer.

Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters in 125 cities on Tuesday, the 1st, and Wednesday, the 2nd. The poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under code BR-03669/2026. It has a margin of error of two percentage points, either way, and a 95% confidence level.

Concern was highest among declared supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro, at 63%. The figures were statistically tied among supporters of Renan Santos, at 59%, Ronaldo Caiado, at 56%, Augusto Cury, at 55%, and Romeu Zema, at 52%. Among Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s supporters, 30% said they were more concerned than in 2022, while 35% reported the same level and 33% a lower level.

The survey also showed stronger stated voting intention. Fifty-seven percent said they were more determined to vote than in 2022, compared with 32% who felt equally determined and 11% who felt less determined. The figures for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula supporters were statistically tied: 68% of Flávio’s supporters and 61% of Lula’s said they were more determined to vote. The margin of error for these breakdowns was four percentage points.

Among voters aligned with neither Lula nor Bolsonaro, 40% said they were more determined to vote, 41% equally determined and 18% less determined. Campaign engagement was weaker overall: 32% said they were less willing to campaign than in 2022, 45% equally engaged and 18% more engaged. In the 2022 presidential runoff, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by 50.9% to 49.1% of valid votes.