Datafolha: Lula Holds Northeastern Lead, Flávio Bolsonaro Leads in South, and Cury Gains Among Young Voters

Lula continues to dominate the Northeast, while Flávio Bolsonaro has established a clear lead in the South. The latest Datafolha poll preserves the main regional strongholds of both candidates, but also points to a rapid rise by writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury among younger voters.

In the simulated first round, Lula receives 38% nationally, compared with 33% for Flávio. Cury has 8%, six points more than in the previous round. Lula reaches 53% in the Northeast, unchanged from the previous poll, while Flávio stands at 22%. In the South, Flávio leads with 44%, up from 38%, as Lula falls from 33% to 25%. Both changes remain within the six-point margin of error for the regional sample.

The race is closer elsewhere. Lula leads Flávio 36% to 34% in the Southeast, a technical tie, reversing the previous 36% to 33% advantage for the senator. The Center-West and North also produce a technical tie, with Flávio at 39% and Lula at 33%. Flávio retains an advantage among evangelical voters, although his support slips from 48% to 45%. Lula rises from 23% to 24% in that group. Among Catholics, Lula leads 44% to 29%.

The poll shows a technical tie in a possible second round, with Lula at 46% and Flávio at 44%. The only change above the margin of error between the two leading candidates appears among voters with higher education. Flávio rises from 42% to 51%, while Lula falls from 45% to 37%.

Cury’s biggest gains come among voters aged 25 to 34, where he moves from 1% to 14%. He also reaches 10% among 16-to-24-year-olds, 14% among voters with higher education, 8% among those with secondary education, and 8% among voters who identify as mixed-race. Some of these increases exceed the poll’s margin of error for the relevant groups.