Datafolha poll: Lula's camp sees relief in stability, Bolsonaro's sees candidate consolidating

Political camps aligned with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro have offered contrasting interpretations of a recent Datafolha poll released Friday. Supporters of Lula expressed relief that the projected second-round scenario remained within the margin of error, despite what they describe as a period of political wear and tear for the president.

Conversely, Flávio Bolsonaro's team views the results as a sign of their candidate's steady progress. They assert that he is consistently closing the gap with Lula in the first round and solidifying his position as the sole viable contender capable of defeating Lula. This perspective highlights a significant cluster of candidates trailing behind, all polling below 5%.

The poll indicates Lula holds 39% of first-round vote intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro garners 32%. In a hypothetical second-round contest between the two frontrunners, Lula leads with 47% against Bolsonaro's 43%. This represents a slight shift from the previous survey, conducted before the official campaign start, where Lula had 48% and Flávio had 43%. The poll's margin of error is two percentage points.

Despite Flávio Bolsonaro's positive oscillation in the polls, allies of the current president privately acknowledge the ongoing impact of recent revelations. These revelations concern the relationship between one of Lula's sons and his former chief of staff with lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger. In this context, Lula losing only one percentage point in the second-round projection, a variation within the margin of error, is seen as a positive outcome for his campaign.

Marco Aurélio Carvalho, coordinator of the president's campaign in São Paulo and attorney for Lulinha (Fábio Luís Lula da Silva), described the result as exceptional given the circumstances. "Given the orchestrated attacks we are enduring from within and outside the country, the result is exceptional. They will sweat, but we will win the election," he stated. Éden Valadares, the PT's Secretary of Communication, expressed no surprise, stating, "I think the poll shows a stable picture, with the president leading all scenarios. Thus, he remains the favorite."