Despite a slight slowdown in the second quarter: OPEC maintains its global demand forecasts

Despite a minor slowdown observed in the second quarter, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains steadfast in its projection for global oil demand growth in 2026. The organization anticipates a steady increase of 1.4 million barrels per day, a figure that has remained consistent with previous forecasts, signaling a stable outlook for the oil market.

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The demand is expected to average 105.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter, according to an OPEC report, compared to 105.57 million predicted in last month's report.

While OPEC has marginally adjusted its second-quarter demand estimates downwards by 500,000 barrels per day, it characterizes this as a transient phase. The organization is confident that demand will rebound robustly in the latter half of the year, with significant growth expected in the third and fourth quarters. This resilience is partly attributed to the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, which, while creating short-term fluctuations, is expected to ultimately bolster demand.

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In its latest monthly report published yesterday on its website, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts a 1.4 million barrels per day (Mb/d) increase in global oil demand in 2026, year-on-year.

The report also sheds light on production trends within OPEC and its allies (OPEC+). March saw a notable reduction in output from key members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. These cuts are occurring against a backdrop of regional tensions, including the ongoing conflict impacting Iran and the persistent crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which naturally influence supply dynamics and production strategies among member states.

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But the Organization considers this slight slowdown to be 'transitory' given the evolution of the situation in the Middle East.