Despite summit pledges, don’t expect US-China trade to improve

The recent summit between the presidents of China and the United States in Beijing, marked by pledges to foster a stable and constructive relationship and the announcement of new joint trade and investment councils, has understandably stirred hopes for an easing of bilateral economic tensions. However, as the South China Morning Post points out, historical parallels and current actions suggest that these hopes may be misplaced.

The narrative of diplomatic niceties being paired with unrelenting pressure from Washington is a familiar one. The article draws a sobering parallel to the aftermath of President Donald Trump's 2017 visit to China, which was hailed as successful with substantial deals, yet was soon followed by the initiation of the trade war that persists today. This pattern suggests that the "talking the talk" of improved relations does not necessarily translate into "walking the walk" of genuine de-escalation.

Evidence of this ongoing pressure is abundant. The US International Trade Commission's investigation into revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status, the Treasury's restrictions on American investment in key technology sectors like AI and quantum computing, and the inclusion of Chinese AI models in US defense systems are all indicative of continued strategic competition. Furthermore, the Federal Communications Commission's new rule on telecommunication test reports and the recent blacklisting of Chinese firms over Iran links underscore Washington's persistent use of trade and technology as tools of leverage. In essence, the article concludes, what has been observed is not a true trade truce, but merely a temporary pause in tariff escalations.