Diaspora does not decide elections; electoral system ignores demographic reality

Croatia's electoral system fails to represent the demographic reality of its citizens living abroad, a situation that has persisted for decades. While hundreds of thousands of Croatian citizens reside outside the country, their political representation is minimal, and they are not a deciding factor in election results, according to scientific research. The country is grappling with one of Europe's most profound demographic crises, yet the political representation of Croatians abroad continues to be viewed through the lens of outdated ideological disputes.

Instead of discussing how to connect the homeland with the diaspora, the public discourse has long been dominated by the notion that the diaspora's political influence is a significant problem. However, data contradicts this assertion. Research, such as the 2020 study "The Impact of Diaspora and Recent Emigration on Election Results in the Republic of Croatia" by Jurić, demonstrates that the diaspora does not determine election outcomes. Furthermore, they are among the least politically represented groups of Croatian citizens.

The influx of a new Croatian diaspora following the country's entry into the EU has complicated matters. Many expatriates have retained their Croatian residency or temporarily deregistered it, allowing them to remain voters in their original electoral units. This situation highlights the disconnect between the electoral system and the actual demographic distribution and political engagement of Croatian citizens worldwide. The article suggests a need to shift the focus from perceived diaspora influence to practical strategies for integrating and representing this significant segment of the Croatian population.