Does Tshisekedi’s third-term bid benefit DRCongo?

The Democratic Republic of Congo's Senate has adopted a constitutional revision bill that could allow President Félix Tshisekedi to seek a third term. The bill effectively resets presidential term limits, enabling a referendum on a new constitution where his previous terms would not count. This development follows Tshisekedi's recent statement suggesting elections in 2028 are contingent on resolving the eastern DRC conflict, while also indicating openness to a third term if supported by the populace.

Despite protests from opposition parties and civil society groups, including the Catholic Church, the bill is advancing rapidly due to Tshisekedi's coalition dominating Parliament. Critics label the process a "constitutional coup," expressing concern that the move will undermine democratic legitimacy and weaken the state. The constitution currently prohibits the revision of term limits, but this bill provides a pathway for Tshisekedi to initiate such a change.

This constitutional maneuvering carries significant domestic and international consequences. The delayed departure of former president Joseph Kabila previously triggered protests and a legitimacy crisis, weakening Kinshasa's diplomatic standing. Tshisekedi's actions risk a similar outcome, potentially self-defeating by further weakening already fragile governance, especially if elections are postponed under the guise of security concerns.

Years of weak institutions, corruption, and the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC have eroded public trust in electoral processes, with only 12% of the population expressing confidence. A referendum and conditional elections could worsen this fragility. Low trust undermines the credibility of democratic procedures, increasing the likelihood of contested outcomes and pushing political competition towards alternative, potentially violent, mobilizations. Furthermore, the conflict in the east provides a pretext for securitizing political contestation, allowing armed groups and elites to exploit fear and mistrust.