Dollar/TL Starts New Week With Gains Amid Weak US Data and Regional Tensions

The Turkish Lira experienced an uptick at the start of the new trading week, with the Dolar/TL pair trading at 47.9010. The Lira had closed the previous week with a slight increase of 0.1%, settling at 47.8818.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index saw a decline of 0.2%, reaching 99.5. This movement was influenced by recent US macroeconomic data. Retail sales in the US fell by 0.6% in July, marking the first decline since October 2025. Additionally, the consumer confidence index, measured by the University of Michigan, dropped to 51 in August, falling short of market expectations.

These weaker economic indicators have bolstered the belief that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate in the upcoming September meeting. Market pricing now suggests about a 30% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, with expectations for a year-end increase also diminishing.

Market participants are closely watching for the release of the minutes from the Fed's July meeting this week. In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical developments in West Asia are also impacting market sentiment. Ongoing peace talks in the region have yielded no results, and new US sanctions on Iran could potentially increase geopolitical uncertainties, thereby limiting risk appetite.