Don’t assume US decline will lead to its fall, warns Chinese scholar

A leading Chinese commentator cautions that assuming the United States' decline will inevitably lead to its fall is a potentially "fatal mistake." Zheng Yongnian, dean of public policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, stated that while the US is a "hegemony in decline," no other nation is currently capable of replacing its global position. He emphasized a significant gap between the US being in relative decline and being fully "replaced" as the world's hegemon, a scenario he described as purely hypothetical.

Zheng pointed to the enduring dominance of the US dollar as the primary global reserve currency, alongside America's superior military capabilities and its continued edge in emerging technologies, as key factors maintaining its hegemonic status. This assessment comes even as recent Gallup polls indicate China has surpassed the US in global approval ratings for the first time in nearly two decades, with median approval for US leadership falling to 31% last year while China's rose to 36%.

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The United States is still a hegemony in decline. Even with its relative decline, it remains a hegemony because no nation or force is currently capable of truly taking its place.

Despite these shifts in public perception and China's growing influence, Zheng's analysis underscores the complex and multifaceted nature of global power dynamics. The scholar's perspective highlights that while the US faces relative decline, its established strengths in critical areas ensure its continued role as a global hegemon for the foreseeable future, making any premature declarations of its imminent fall ill-advised.

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The idea of the US being overtaken remains purely hypothetical.