Drone attacks hit Sea of Azov: Ukraine strikes two Russian ports, disrupting grain trade again

Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian ports in the Sea of Azov have significantly disrupted operations, impacting key export routes. Strikes overnight Sunday into Monday targeted the ports of Azov and Taganrog, with subsequent restrictions imposed by Russian authorities potentially hindering the flow of grain and other strategic commodities.

Following the drone attack, which also damaged a residential building in Rostov-on-Don, Russian Railways announced limitations on freight transport to the Azov and Taganrog ports. These restrictions, effective until August 4, affect railway stations serving the ports, which handle a combined annual traffic of approximately 13 million tons. This measure follows recent decisions by the Russian Ministry of Transport to prohibit vessel anchoring near the port of Azov, a vital hub for exporting grain, coal, and oil products.

The disruptions extend beyond these specific ports. Reports indicate that over 100 vessels have been affected by a series of drone attacks in the Sea of Azov, leading to temporary suspensions of transit through the Kerch Strait. Sources within the transport industry suggest that grain exports via the Don River have been effectively stopped. This route was crucial in the previous agricultural season, accounting for about 14.7 million tons of grain and related products, representing roughly 27% of Russia's total grain exports.

Analysts predict a substantial decline in Russia's grain exports for July, potentially falling by a third compared to last year. SovEcon, an agricultural analysis firm, estimates Russia might lose around 600,000 tons in exports, with the total volume dropping to approximately 2.1 million tons, the lowest July level since 2017. This figure represents a more than 30% decrease compared to the five-year average of about 3.1 million tons. Experts note that Russia faces increasing difficulties in defending its maritime trade routes against Ukrainian aerial assaults.

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Russia has limited capabilities to counter Ukrainian attacks on its maritime routes.