Dutch government divided, struggling to find budget majorities

The Dutch coalition government, led by Prime Minister Rob Jetten, faces significant internal divisions that are paralyzing its efforts to secure parliamentary majorities for the upcoming 2027 budget. Despite an initial appearance of optimism, the coalition parties, D66, VVD, and CDA, are deeply split on fundamental issues, hindering their ability to negotiate effectively.

Negotiations have stalled as the parties grapple with how to proceed, particularly concerning the role of the largest opposition party, Pro. The government's options are limited: a path to the right, potentially involving parties like JA21, SGP, and BBB, is complicated by BBB's conditions regarding nitrogen plans. This leaves a path to the left, which would likely require cooperation with Pro, as the more viable, yet politically challenging, route.

Sources within the coalition suggest that the timing is not yet right for a deal with Pro, which advocates for the removal of austerity measures on the social safety net and is aligned with trade unions. The government aims to negotiate with unions and employers first, but a major strike by transport workers on September 9 complicates these plans. The prevailing sentiment is that discussions with Pro can only begin in earnest after progress is made with the social partners.

For the VVD, a key party in the coalition, aligning with Pro before the General Political Debates, the most important parliamentary discussions of the year, could prove politically damaging. The approaching deadline for submitting the budget to the Council of State on Friday adds urgency to the situation, making it increasingly likely that the government will fail to find broad support for its budget proposals before Prinsjesdag, the traditional state opening of Parliament.