Eastern Germany Faces Severe Labor Shortage Without Migration, Study Warns

Eastern Germany is projected to experience a significantly more acute labor shortage than the western part of the country if migration is halted, according to calculations by the Institute of the German Economy (IW) in Cologne. The study indicates that the decline in the working-age population in the East would be substantially steeper.

Without migration, the IW economists estimate that the number of people of working age (15-66 years) in eastern Germany could decrease by 22.4% by 2045. In contrast, the West is expected to see a reduction of 17.4%. This stark demographic difference raises concerns about the future economic stability and service availability in the eastern states.

"This means the economic situation, particularly in the provision of services, will be difficult to maintain," warned IW economists Philipp Deschermeier and Wido Geis-Thöne. Currently, approximately 7.74 million people in eastern Germany fall within the working-age bracket. This figure already represents a 23% decrease from the 10.05 million recorded in late 1995.

Looking ahead, the IW's projections suggest that if migration were to cease, the working-age population in the East would drop to 6.78 million by 2035 and further to around six million by 2045. Over the period from 1995 to 2045, the East could lose as much as 40% of its working-age population.

The economists also clarified that not everyone of working age is employed. Considering the current employment rate of 75.9% among those of working age, the study predicts that by 2045, only 45.3% of the eastern German population would be working if migration were stopped.