EBRD forecasts Tajikistan’s economy to grow by 7.9% in 2026

Tajikistan's economy is projected to expand by 7.9% in 2026, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). This follows robust growth estimated at 8.4% for both 2024 and 2025. The EBRD's "Regional Economic Prospects" report highlights that the country's GDP grew by approximately 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.

This early 2026 growth was fueled by increased activity in key sectors including trade, transport, communications, manufacturing, and electricity production. A notable surge in capital investment, up 34.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, also contributed significantly, partly due to government spending on projects like the Rogun Hydropower Plant. While imports rose by 16.6% driven by domestic demand, exports remained largely stable.

Tajikistan maintained a budget surplus in 2025, supported by strong tax revenues, even as social security and energy spending increased. Moody's recently upgraded Tajikistan's sovereign credit rating to B2 with a stable outlook, citing sustained economic resilience and improved public finance management. However, the EBRD notes growing inflationary pressures linked to the Middle East conflict as a risk.

Regionally, the EBRD forecasts a slowdown across Central Asia, with growth expected to decrease from 6.9% in 2025 to 5.6% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027. Despite this trend, Tajikistan and its neighbors are anticipated to maintain the highest growth rates within the EBRD's countries of operation. Strong domestic consumption and investment continue to underpin regional growth, with services, construction, and manufacturing acting as key drivers.