Ecuador braces for fuel price hike amid global oil market volatility

Ecuador faces anticipation for updated fuel prices, with new values for Extra gasoline, Ecopaís gasoline, and premium diesel scheduled to take effect on June 12, 2026. This adjustment occurs against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and significant fluctuations in the international oil market.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark for Ecuadorian crude, saw a daily increase of $3, reaching $91.20 per barrel on June 10. This rise is attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, which poses risks to global oil supply. While official price adjustments have not yet been announced, sector representatives believe there is a high probability of an increase for regulated fuels.

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The conflict in the Persian Gulf has kept WTI between $95 and $100 per barrel. When dialogue between Iran and the United States broke down, oil rose by about 5%. All of this generates impacts.

Industry stakeholders, such as Ivo Rosero, president of the National Chamber of Petroleum Derivatives Distributors (Camddepe), suggest the most likely scenario involves fuels reaching the maximum allowable increase within the current pricing band system. "The conflict in the Persian Gulf has kept WTI between $95 and $100 per barrel. When dialogue between Iran and the United States broke down, oil rose by about 5%. All of this generates impacts," Rosero stated. He also highlighted the substantial state subsidies on fuels, noting that diesel subsidies amount to $1.92 per gallon, Ecopaís gasoline to $0.60, and Extra gasoline to $0.59. Based on these factors, Rosero predicts an increase at the band's upper limit, which is 5%.

If this prediction holds true, it would mark the fourth consecutive month of price increases for gasoline and other regulated fuels in Ecuador. A second, more moderate scenario suggests a smaller increase, dependent on international price trends and technical calculations by the Hydrocarbons Regulation and Control Agency (ARCH). A third, less likely possibility, is a temporary price freeze, though ARCH notes that international market pressures persist. The government has assured a constant national fuel supply.

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To date, there is a very high subsidy on fuels. In the case of diesel, it is $1.92 per gallon; for Ecopaís gasoline, it is $0.60, and for Extra gasoline, it is $0.59. From our point of view, the increase will be the top of the band, which is 5%.