Ecuador faces crucial months in defining El Niño's impact

Ecuador is entering a decisive period as scientists intensify monitoring of the Pacific Ocean's warming trends to understand the full scope of the El Niño phenomenon's impact on the country's upcoming rainy season. The coming two months are considered critical for observing whether the warmer ocean conditions will fully align with Ecuador's typical rainfall patterns.

The National Committee for the Study of the Regional Phenomenon El Niño (Erfen) indicated in a recent report that while ocean-atmosphere coupling is strengthening across the Pacific, its effects are not yet consistently felt over Ecuadorian territory. Despite this, the sea surface temperature off Ecuador's coast has risen notably, with readings ranging between 24 and 28 degrees Celsius in monitored areas.

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The ocean-atmosphere coupling is established and strengthening on a Pacific scale, but it is not manifesting in a sustained manner over our Ecuadorian territory.

Specifically, the region known as El Niño 1+2, located off the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru, has seen temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Celsius above normal. For instance, southern Ecuador registered 24 degrees Celsius, central areas reached 26 degrees, and Esmeraldas province saw temperatures as high as 28 degrees. The Galapagos Islands region recorded temperatures between 25 and 26 degrees Celsius.

These temperatures are significantly higher than expected for August, when they should typically be much lower. The anomaly is particularly pronounced in the south, where temperatures should be around 20 degrees Celsius but are currently near 24-25 degrees. This persistent warming of the sea, driven by El Niño, has led to 17 provinces in Ecuador being placed on orange alert. The Oceanographic and Antarctic Institute of the Navy of Ecuador (Inocar) is set to commence its third research cruise to continue scientific observations.

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The sea temperature has increased by 4 degrees Celsius off the Ecuadorian coast.