Editor's Notes: The argument splitting religious-Zionist households before Israel’s election

The Israeli political landscape is buzzing with potential new party formations as figures like Gilad Erdan, a long-time Likud member and former UN ambassador, prepare to launch their own ventures. This move signals a scramble to attract voters on the right who feel they lack representation.

Erdan is expected to be joined by Yuli Edelstein, known for his efforts to block the ultra-Orthodox exemption bill. Meanwhile, Ayelet Shaked, formerly a prominent secular figure on the settler Right, has shifted her allegiance to Benny Gantz, a former army chief of staff who left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet. The fluidity of these alliances underscores the volatile nature of the current political climate.

Further complicating the picture are Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper, former ministers from the short-lived government that ousted Netanyahu in 2021. They are reportedly building a party further to the left, potentially aligning with Gadi Eisenkot, another former chief of staff who resigned from the war cabinet. On the opposite flank, Ofer Winter, who commanded the Givati Brigade, is also preparing a political run, indicating a broad spectrum of new movements emerging.

These new parties are all vying for the same segment of the electorate: Israelis on the Right with nowhere to go. While some pollsters suggest this bloc could be worth nine to 12 seats, others estimate four to eight. However, the true measure of this sentiment may lie less in polling numbers and more in the deep divisions within communities, such as religious-Zionist households.

A significant point of contention, particularly for religious-Zionist families who have sent many sons to fight and die since October 7, is the ongoing debate over the conscription bill. This legislation aims to re-establish exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men studying Torah full-time, a practice struck down by the Supreme Court in 2024. After a long war fought largely by reservists, the issue of military service cuts deep, fueling arguments that extend from conscription to taxes and educational standards.