El Niño and Dictatorship Combine to Threaten Nicaragua's Dry Corridor

Nicaragua's Dry Corridor faces a perilous outlook in 2026, as a potentially intensified El Niño is forecast to exacerbate already scarce rainfall. This climatic challenge is compounded by a severe lack of resources, a situation worsened by the current regime's actions.

The government's expulsion of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), an agency crucial for securing funds for drought mitigation projects, has left vulnerable communities with diminished support. The crackdown on non-governmental organizations, including dozens that provided essential aid and supported small-scale farmers, has further isolated these regions.

Many residents, like Leoncio, have abandoned traditional agriculture, which has become increasingly unprofitable and unproductive due to harsh environmental conditions. He has turned to artisanal gold mining, an activity that has proven more lucrative for him and some neighbors, offering higher incomes than farming.

However, this shift is not a universal solution. The poorest individuals, lacking access to resources, are the ones most compelled to migrate from agriculture to mining or other labor. While some farmers with access to wells can irrigate a portion of their crops or water their livestock, and cooperatives offer mutual support, fear of government reprisal discourages organized collective action.

Raúl, an expert in project management, notes that the region's climate makes successful agricultural endeavors difficult, with yields often barely sufficient for subsistence. The mining option, though offering some economic relief, highlights a stark contradiction: a territory too poor for agriculture may be rich in minerals. This precarious situation forces difficult choices for families struggling to survive.