El Niño Costero in Peru to Remain Strong Until October, Warns Enfen

Peru's National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) commission has maintained an alert for El Niño Costero, forecasting its strong influence until October and its persistence through the summer of 2027. The phenomenon, which began in March, is expected to register a strong magnitude before weakening to moderate in November.

Enfen's latest official statement anticipates air temperatures above normal across the entire coastline during the July-September quarter. Additionally, there is an increased likelihood of rain along the northern coast, a region that typically experiences scarce precipitation during this period. These conditions might include localized rainfall events, though river flows are expected to remain within usual ranges.

The projections indicate that El Niño Costero, centered in the Niño 1+2 region off Peru's coast, could reach strong magnitudes again during the 2026-2027 summer, with a 48% probability. A moderate event has a 46% chance. However, for July, a strong warm category holds an 80% probability, making it the most likely scenario for much of 2026, with a potential shift towards a moderate event in November.

Furthermore, the report warns that the impact extends beyond Peru's coast. In the Niño 3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific, El Niño is expected to begin this June and last until the summer of 2027. It could reach strong intensity between August 2026 and February 2027, with probabilities increasing to 51% by November. The warming sea temperatures are also expected to continue, with new warm Kelvin waves arriving between July and August, potentially boosting surface temperature anomalies off Peru's coast to +3.2 °C in the Niño 1+2 region.