Peru's winter offers chance to prepare for potential El Niño Costero, expert warns

Peru's winter season presents a critical window for authorities to bolster preparedness against potential El Niño Costero events expected in the summer of 2026-2027, according to Dr. David Pareja Quispe, director of the Geophysics Professional School at the National University of San Marcos.

Dr. Pareja warns that current ocean conditions off the Peruvian coast suggest a scenario conducive to the phenomenon's evolution, with a possibility of increased intensity between December 2026 and February 2027. He emphasizes that the period from July to November is vital for implementing risk-reduction measures. These include cleaning and clearing rivers and ravines, maintaining drainage systems, and strengthening vulnerable infrastructure.

The expert urged national, regional, and local government authorities to expedite prevention and mitigation work before the rainy season begins. He cautioned that delayed actions could exacerbate the impacts during the summer, a period typically marked by heavy rains, floods, river overflows, and landslides.

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Prevention must begin now. Winter gives us an opportunity to prepare before the rainy season. The actions taken in the coming months will be fundamental to reducing the impacts that could occur during the summer of 2026-2027.

This year's winter is already exhibiting unusual characteristics. Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are altering atmospheric conditions, leading to more persistent morning cloud cover, fog, and drizzle, interspersed with sunny, warmer afternoons. This deviation from a typical winter is causing higher temperatures and modifying the usual thermal sensation associated with the season.

Dr. Pareja recommends continuous monitoring of ocean and atmospheric conditions and advises the public to stay informed about temperature changes and take precautions during colder mornings and warmer afternoons. He stressed that proactive measures now are essential to mitigate the potential devastation of future extreme weather events.

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We must take into account that, due to the current conditions of the ocean off our coasts, mornings with abundant cloud cover, fog, and more persistent episodes of drizzle and light rain will continue to be recorded. However, towards noon and in the afternoon, sunshine will prevail, generating a milder and even warm environment compared to a typical winter.